Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.7#42
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 8.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.7% 8.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 17.1% 8.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.2% 42.5% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.8% 40.1% 14.9%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 9.3
.500 or above 86.4% 86.7% 55.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.0% 58.3% 31.1%
Conference Champion 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.5% 9.0%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 5.6%
First Round39.9% 40.2% 10.9%
Second Round24.5% 24.6% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.1% 11.2% 1.6%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.2% 0.1%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 5.41.6 - 5.4
Quad 1b1.6 - 2.13.2 - 7.5
Quad 23.0 - 2.26.1 - 9.7
Quad 34.0 - 1.110.1 - 10.8
Quad 49.7 - 0.319.9 - 11.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 331   Mount St. Mary's W 84-62 99%    
  Nov 10, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-63 99%    
  Nov 13, 2018 294   UNC Asheville W 87-69 98%    
  Nov 17, 2018 327   Maine W 90-68 99%    
  Nov 20, 2018 178   St. Peter's W 74-63 90%    
  Nov 24, 2018 272   Mercer W 83-66 96%    
  Nov 27, 2018 22   @ Wisconsin L 72-74 31%    
  Dec 01, 2018 83   Vanderbilt W 80-75 66%    
  Dec 05, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 88-69 97%    
  Dec 15, 2018 57   Penn St. W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 19, 2018 13   Auburn L 83-87 47%    
  Dec 22, 2018 334   South Carolina Upstate W 95-73 98%    
  Dec 28, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland W 86-68 97%    
  Jan 03, 2019 23   @ Miami (FL) L 77-79 31%    
  Jan 08, 2019 6   North Carolina L 81-88 36%    
  Jan 12, 2019 167   Pittsburgh W 79-68 88%    
  Jan 15, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 84-77 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 49   @ Notre Dame W 76-75 43%    
  Jan 24, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 82-80 45%    
  Jan 26, 2019 18   Clemson L 74-77 50%    
  Jan 29, 2019 2   Virginia L 62-70 34%    
  Feb 02, 2019 20   Virginia Tech L 80-83 51%    
  Feb 05, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 81-88 19%    
  Feb 09, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 79-68 74%    
  Feb 13, 2019 12   Syracuse L 70-74 44%    
  Feb 16, 2019 4   @ Duke L 80-88 19%    
  Feb 20, 2019 78   Boston College W 83-79 72%    
  Feb 24, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 84-77 80%    
  Mar 02, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 83-86 30%    
  Mar 06, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 77-70 79%    
  Mar 09, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 83-79 54%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 11.1 9.1 - 8.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.5 1.2 0.2 6.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.5 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.1 0.2 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.4 3.5 0.4 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.9 1.9 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 1.9 0.2 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 15th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.2 10.1 11.4 11.9 12.4 10.9 8.8 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 88.0% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 53.1% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.1
14-4 20.4% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.3% 99.6% 12.1% 87.5% 4.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 6.0% 98.0% 8.9% 89.2% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
12-6 8.8% 91.1% 6.7% 84.4% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 90.5%
11-7 10.9% 75.8% 4.4% 71.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 74.7%
10-8 12.4% 55.7% 4.0% 51.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 53.8%
9-9 11.9% 30.2% 2.0% 28.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 28.8%
8-10 11.4% 9.1% 1.6% 7.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 7.6%
7-11 10.1% 2.6% 1.1% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 1.5%
6-12 8.2% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0%
5-13 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 42.2% 4.0% 38.2% 7.2 1.0 1.4 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.7 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 57.8 39.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9